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School Bus Predictions And Trends

Earlier this year, we reflected on the previous 40 years in the bus industry.

Now we’re looking ahead.

Melanie Zehr, Vice-President of Kerlin Bus Sales, shares her predictions for some of the most common questions.

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1. Will The Overall Inventory Of New And Used Buses Increase?

It will be several years before inventory levels return to what they once were. New production is still significantly further out than in the past and prices have increased leading to a greater demand for used buses.


2. Will The Majority Of Supply Chain Issues Be Over?

This is a hard one to say. We hear from the factories overall that they are improving. But I think overall everyone is further out on production including the subcomponents. We are still experiencing longer lead times across the board for parts and service items.


3. Will The Popularity Of EV Buses Continue?

EV adoption across school districts is only going to increase across the country as many states have mandated either a percentage of purchases or only purchasing EV buses after 2035.


4. Will EV Buses Become More Popular In The Midwest?

More and more people in the Midwest are becoming interested in at least sampling what EV vehicles can do for their fleet. However, the last round of funding was not drawn favorably for Indiana schools. Hopefully, in future rounds, more Indiana schools can participate.

We know there are at least four more years of aggressive federal programs for EV school buses. This will help drive demand as it allows schools to cover the upfront cost difference from the diesel product.


5. As More People Look For Affordable Housing, Will The Popularity Of Skoolies Increase?

I think skoolies are a fun project for people who want to travel with their family or want something more customized than what they can do with an RV. The increase in used bus costs over the past year or two has probably also kept some people from taking the plunge as used buses have held their value better with less inventory available.


6. For People Looking For New Buses, What Will Be Popular?

We are seeing a trend toward smaller Type A buses that do not require a CDL. Also, utilizing safety features and driver comfort features help retain their workforce. Air ride seats, heated driver’s seats, adjustable pedals, PV360, and dash-air are all items that improve driver comfort and make it safer for them to operate the vehicle.


7. For People Looking For Used Buses, What Will Be Popular?

Type A buses are always popular in the used market. They don't require a CDL to drive and are oftentimes already white in our market.


8. What Big Changes Are Coming To The School Bus Industry?

Rarely does the school bus industry see BIG changes. I think the EV trends we are seeing may be the biggest. We are also seeing technologies that are available in the automotive market becoming popular:



These are just predictions. But no matter what happens, you can rely on Kerlin for your bus sales and service needs. Contact us today if you have any questions.